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Wednesday, December 7, 2011

UFC 140: Jones vs Machida predictions

For my first prediction, Tito Ortiz over Lil Nog:

I think Tito will have more stamina and enough wrestling to neutralize Lil' Nog's boxing offense.  It's going to be hard to deal with Tito if Nog could barely scrape by Jason Brilz who pretty much beat him standing.  Nog didn't do so well off his back against Phil Davis either, even with that BJJ black belt.  Tito by SD.

Next prediction, Big Nog over Frank Mir:

If the first KO loss was really due to a staph infection, I say Big Nog can pull off the upset here against Frank Mir.  His KO over Schaub was pleasantly surprising, but he did take a few unnecessary powershots.  If not for that legendary chin, he would have gone down.  He needs to work his defense a bit better to take out.  Mir handled Cro Cop and Roy Nelson just fine, but he'll have his work cut out for him facing a healthy Nogueira who's out for revenge.  Big Nog by UD.

Next up, Lyoto over Jones:

You probably think I'm crazy for picking Lyoto.
Yes, Jon Jones is on a complete tear through the entire lightweight division.
Yes, Jon Jones has dismantled the only two men to have ever beaten Lyoto Machida in dominant fashion.
Yes, Jon Jones is the -445 betting favorite going into this fight.
But Lyoto drinks piss.  You don't piss off a piss-drinker.  Lyoto is fucking Ryu from street fighter, don't forget he was a puzzle just a few fights ago and no one saw his reign ending.  That Shogun fight could have been a fluke headshot and that Rampage fight could have gone his direction.  I know that's a bit of stretch since he did lose, but right now in the lightheavyweight division, I like Machida's chances best.

Machida via submission round 3.

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