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Tuesday, March 15, 2011

Jon Jones -210, Shogun Rua +165

So everyone seems to have picked Jon Jones to win this fight already, and at an almost 2-to-1 rate, it almost seems guaranteed that Jon Jones will absolutely win and that everyone should bet their houses on it.

Then why am I still not sold?

Jones elbows on the ground are vicious, and his pure athleticism in explosive takedowns and top-control have put guys like Matyushenko and Bader in tough positions all through the night (albeit short nights).  His striking and reach is quite flashy and he's never been in real trouble in any of his fights.  And, he's fucking 23 years old.

Things don't look too good for Shogun either as he is coming off knee surgery (last time he did that, he barely beat 46-year-old Mark Coleman), and having a new-age fighter like Jones as your first title defense can be a real bitch.

But can we really see Jon Jones walk away with the belt this Saturday? Is he really going to beat Shogun and become the new UFC light heavyweight champion that fast?  Everything on paper tells me that he most likely will win, but maybe thats because of UFC hype and how good he looked in beating his opponents, but then again his opponents were Bonnar, Vera, Matyushenko, and Bader.....Bonnar lost to Mark Coleman for crying out loud, Vera was kicked off the UFC roster for losing 3x in a row, Matyushenko is solid but beaten by Lil Nog and Tito Ortiz, and Bader's wins over Nog and Jardine made him look sluggish and barely able to win.  And if he does beat Shogun, how will he do it? KO? TKO? Submission? Highly unlikely... a decision, perhaps? A decision would require the fight to last 5 can a fight between someone like Jon Jones and someone like Shogun possibly even go to the distance?

What Shogun's got going for him is that he has beaten Machida (arguably twice), the man who was coined as being a whole new era due to the aura of invincibility that he seemingly carried as he demolished light heavyweight opposition.  and he himself was brutally destroyed by Shogun.

I dont know, i feel like if I bet on Jones, I'd lose.  he has a good chance to beat shogun in wrestling, but thats about it.  he's not going to be able to hang if he decides to stand and bang with one of the worlds best strikers, even with his height and reach advantage.  jones has never faced a champion before, and now hes facing a pride champ and a ufc champ at the same time...

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